Since Tether Gold (XAUT) launched in 2020, it has finished every fourth quarter in the green: six for six.
It is October again, and this year the margin is thin. XAUT closed Q3 at $4,155 and trades around $4,141, so the streak survives only if it closes December above that Q3 level, a gain of roughly 0.3% from here. Meanwhile, Tether has just minted close to half a billion dollars of new tokens, and the Federal Reserve has started hiking again. Here is what the numbers show. Every source is primary except the seasonality figures, which come from CryptoRank’s analytics page.
The streak
Here are the monthly returns for each Q4 on record:
The record holds, with four caveats.
The sample is six quarters. XAUT was up in about three of every four quarters in this dataset (20 of 27). At that base rate, six up Q4s in a row would occur by chance roughly one time in six, so the streak proves little on its own.
Q1 is just as strong. Q1 was positive in six of seven years and averaged +6.21%, against +5.55% for Q4. Q4 is just the only quarter with no down year.
December does most of the work. December was positive in five of six years (2024 was flat), while November was negative in three. Two Q4s were close calls: in 2024, a strong October was followed by a weak November and flat December, leaving the quarter at +0.31%; in 2020, a −5.09% November was rescued by a +7.36% December.
The monthly figures are approximate. The World Gold Council puts spot gold at $4,563 at the end of August. CryptoRank’s September figures imply an XAUT month-end close nearer $4,440, about 3% lower. That could be timing, price source or a token discount, so don’t lean on any single month.
The $495 Million Mint, Checked On-chain
A widely shared report said Tether minted roughly $495 million of XAUT. The report republished an Arkham post, so I checked it against primary data.
Etherscan’s XAUt contract page shows a total supply of 827,417.63 XAUt as of October 5. Tether’s Q2 attestation release put circulating supply at 707,747 tokens on June 30. The difference is 119,670.54 tokens, which matches the reported mint. That is a 16.9% increase in supply, equal to about 3.7 tonnes of gold and roughly $496 million at today’s price. Press reports date the mint to September 29; I confirmed the supply jump rather than the individual transaction.
One detail in the original report is out of date: it says XAUT’s market capitalization was $2.5 billion before the mint. Tether’s own attestation valued the supply at $2.84 billion at June 30, and it would be about $2.9 billion at today’s price.
The bigger point: a mint is not the same as buying. Tether’s reports separate tokens “sold” from tokens “available for sale.” Between the end of Q1 and the end of Q2, customers bought 53,225 tokens, and available inventory fell from 148,148 to 94,923. My reading is that the new mint replenishes that inventory. Tether states that tokens are issued only after the corresponding bars have cleared the custodian’s intake process, so the gold exists, but the mint alone doesn’t show buyers. The Q3 attestation will show how much sold. Tether published Q1 on May 4 and Q2 on August 3, so early November is the likely window, though that timing is an inference. I found no Tether press release about the mint.
What Else Tether Has Said
Demand held up through a slump. Per the Q2 release, customer holdings rose 9.5% even though gold fell 14.1% over the quarter. Reserves stood at 707,747 ounces (22.01 tonnes) held in Switzerland, and the attestation report is public. Separately, Tether International bought about 27.1 tonnes of gold in the first half for its own reserves; that is distinct from the gold backing XAUT.
Alloy is closed. Tether wound down Alloy and aUSD₮, saying it would concentrate on XAU₮ and other core products. The deadline to recover XAU₮ through the platform was September 17.
Wider distribution. On September 28, Tether announced self-custodial products with Shiga that will support XAU₮ across Africa and the GCC. It adds reach but is unlikely to move the price.
Holders are up sharply. The Ethereum contract has 61,380 holders, up from 34,735 in early March, an increase of about 77% (Ethereum only).
The Macro Backdrop
The Fed is tightening. On September 16 it raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% in a 12–0 vote, saying inflation remains elevated. The Fed’s calendar shows September’s minutes on October 7 and the next FOMC meeting on October 27–28.
Inflation is the swing factor. August CPI was 3.4% year over year, and BLS releases September CPI on October 14.
The gold market is split on what hikes mean. The WGC’s latest commentary notes that August gold rose 13.3%, the third-best month in a quarter century, driven by ETF buying. It says a hike looks poor for gold on paper but may not be if it restores policy credibility, and that Treasury buybacks and yield-cap worries support gold unless markets are convinced.
Demand softened in Q2. The WGC’s Q2 report shows total demand flat at 1,269 tonnes, with 45 tonnes of ETF outflows, 289 tonnes of central bank buying and 327 tonnes of OTC demand.
Gold is well below its high. The WGC lists spot gold’s record at $5,405 on January 29, so XAUT sits roughly 23% below it.
Dates to watch
- Oct 7: FOMC minutes (September meeting)
- Oct 14: September CPI
- Oct 27–28: FOMC decision
- Late Oct to early Nov (unconfirmed): WGC Q3 Gold Demand Trends
- Early Nov (inferred): Tether’s Q3 XAU₮ attestation, showing how much of the new mint sold
- Dec 31: XAUT needs to close above $4,155 for Q4 to stay positive.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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